Crypto Market Update – JenkinsRM

Crypto Market Update

In today’s post we’re using our top-down price and cyclical analysis method to examine some of the notable names we follow in the crypto space.


We have previously talked about what a monthly down-cycle would look like for Bitcoin because the stochastic has been ribboning at overbought levels for such a long time.  The cycle didn’t turn down until December/January (circled in red) but ever since then, it’s been one long move back down.  Now it appears that the monthly cycle is starting to turn up back again, and we note this coincides with price back at the bottom of the Wave Formation Bands.  The intra-month high is the $4,000 – $4,100 area; a monthly close above that would definitely be taken as a positive sign by the bulls.

Monthly Chart

I’ve overlaid several cycles on the daily chart to compare them against the price of Bitcoin.  Each one represents a difference timeframe.  The next major wave that I care about is near the end of February.  If BTC can make a new high above the $4,100 – $4,300 area of the December highs with the cycle towards the end of February, then that might point towards a move higher into April.  We can already see price starting to edge higher as the intermediate-term cycle (denoted by the red sine wave) starts to turn back up here.

BTC Cycles

Taking an even closer look at the daily chart, we note the recent Real Money Candle that emerged from the lows seen earlier this month (circled in red).  Since then, price has remained in the top third of that candle which is a constructive and bullish sign.  If you bought that Real Money Candle or into the subsequent pullback, this would be the spot to start booking some of those gains.

The 4 hour chart shows the strong push higher that BTC has been making recently.  Most notably, price has made a sustained move back above the Pi Line, something it hasn’t been able to do since early January.  Again, these are constructive signs for bulls.  We wouldn’t been chasing long entries at this point, rather these new highs are areas to book intermediate-term gains if you bought recently.


Our last buys on Cardano were just below Pi, in the $0.037 area.  It makes sense to realize some of that profit now as price approaches resistance near $0.045, but we’ll still keep a core long position and see whether we get a further move higher towards the swing highs above $0.05.


The last buys on Ethereum were made in the $105 area.  Since then we’ve seen about a 36% move higher so it’s a good idea to take partial profit into strength on this name as well.

ETH 4 Hour

Intermediate-term resistance is clearly the area of $155 – $160.  If price can above there and can start making higher highs again, something ETH hasn’t done in a very long time, this will change the TMS and we would typically expect a move back towards the Pi Line as per our model.  This would be is the area of $300 on the intermediate term timeframe.

For more in-depth of analysis of these names plus others, including Litecoin, SALT, BNB, and Monero, be sure to check out the video I just posted.